The black male leans forward, revealing his intention to attack as his posture has shifted to load up the punch. The white male immediately clinches and falls to the ground, pulling the other with him. He is obviously very confident on the ground and does not mind which position he initially ends up in, as long as it is on the ground.
The black male grabs the other in a head lock, which is a terrible idea against an experienced grappler as it allows them to take the back.
Others intervene for a second but the fight eventually ends with the white male threatening to destroy the leg of the black male, which is not a hollow threat as he is holding a heel hook.
Allowed his opponent to close the distance when he had a tool which needs more range.
Range can be managed by movement – he’s completely stationary.
Flat posture, straight back, very likely standing with knees locked straight, does not appear to be in any kind of stance which would prepare him to respond in the split second required to move, defend or attack. His opponent constantly adjusts.
Allowed opponent to grip his wrist. Difficult to swing baton effectively when grappling starts. The grip even from this position may allow opponent to stay off-centre when the baton swing comes.
Furtive glance made by opponent is a huge warning sign. He has already decided to attack at this point and is looking for witnesses, other enemies or allies which may factor in to his decision to go ahead.
Even if he decided to use the baton, it’s a poor weapon. Law enforcement use this as a method of pain compliance, and often need to move to other methods when it fails. Striking the legs is unlikely to instantly shatter kneecaps unless you’re very lucky/unlucky to hit that spot. You’re only starting the fight, not ending it. Swinging to the head would be a different matter.
Compare the above (pain compliance) to the punches thrown to the head (incapacitation).
Baton man seems to think intimidation is enough to keep him safe. The baton is like some kind of force field, everything else can be ignored.
From this position, when would he decide to use it? Once the fighting starts? Too late, too close. When the man fails to step back? This may be considered unjustified assault. Baton man then made a threat to seriously harm, which prompted an aggressive response. He put himself in a situation which is very difficult to win.
Victim standing with hands in pockets within striking range. Aggressor does not telegraph, strikes while talking to distract victim. Striking from this range happens so quickly that it is impossible to react in time for the vast majority of people.